Graham Robinson, Executive Director, Global Research Perspectives, speaks about India´s upward trajectory.
¨We expect India to be one of the fastest growing construction markets in Asia in the next 15-year period. Talking about the top 15 construction markets, in 2014, China comprised 28.7 per cent of the construction market, whereas India comprised 5.9 per cent. Six of the top 10 contractors, globally, are Chinese. So China is the largest construction market by volume, followed by the US, which comprises 17 per cent of the market in the world. India stands fourth among the global construction markets. By 2030, we expect India to go ahead of Japan, which is third currently with 8.5 per cent.
There are key drivers for construction: The economy and what´s happening in other sectors within the economy, the population and, of course, urbanisation. India is expected to be on an uptrend on GDP from 2015-2030. There is a huge urbanisation opportunity in India with smart cities, adopting technologies and developing smart infrastructure - roads, airports and residential as well.
With emerging economies, there will be a huge shift in construction globally by 2030. So far, demand was driven from developed economies, but there will be a shift to emerging economies. Comparing developed and emerging markets from 2005 to 2030, there has been a huge growth rate in the emerging markets up to 7.7 per cent from 2005-14; further, it is expected to be 4.2 per cent from 2014-20, 4.9 per cent from 2020-25, and 5.3 per cent from 2025-30. The growth rate is much higher than developed economies. If we look at the developed part of the Asia-Pacific market, between 2014 and 2030, population growth rate is expected to be 0.1 per cent, GDP 1.3 per cent, and construction 1.5 per cent.
Construction grew at about 10.4 per cent annually in the 2005-14 period in the Asia-Pacific - China increased its industrialisation; it invested in heavy infrastructure, rails, expressways, energy, ports, etc. If you look at China now, every sector is growing and eventually housing will grow too. There is a huge ageing population in China driving healthcare and construction, high-end retail, logistics, ports, imports and exports. If we look at India, India will grow at a much faster rate than China over the next 15-year period on an average. India will be well over a trillion-dollar market by 2030. And consider that the Indian economy and construction market is about a third the size of China.
The average size of construction contractors within the market correlates to the domestic market and China does not really export much construction. India doesn´t export much construction at present too but the size of construction companies will grow immensely soon and we can expect larger diversified Indian construction conglomerates to start their arrival in the European market. This apart from the already present large companies. If you look at the construction growth rate in Asia, the trend is upward, and it is majorly driven by India. We will see a major growth in construction opportunities in India, especially as the country grows its infrastructure business. The Indian government needs to make Indian infrastructure more attractive to attract international investors. It needs to make its programmes and projects more efficient and motivated.
Looking globally, the problem in the Middle East is that it does not have much of a diversified economy; one of the problems with Eastern Europe is that it has a negative population growth rate. To summarise, emerging Asia will have the largest growth rate for construction from 2014-2030. India is really generating growth and, in the 2014-2030 period, it will be the largest growing construction market in Asia - with investments coming in, if things are streamlined and made attractive to investors, and if the government makes construction companies invest as well, and if the financial situation is cleared.¨