Data suggests that demonetisation has hit the pace of announcement of new investment proposals during the quarter-ended December 2016
The Union Budget has set the tone for 2017 by accelerating the growth agenda. The allocation for infrastructure at Rs 3.96 lakh crore, over Rs 3.49 lakh crore last year, will fuel the sector. Of the increase of Rs 47,000 crore, transport itself will consume Rs 24,000 crore.
The Railway Budget has been the largest-ever at Rs 1.31 lakh crore - an 8.26 per cent increase over the Rs 1.21 lakh crore allocated in 2016-17. Railway lines of 3,500 km will be commissioned in 2017-18 while at least 25 stations are expected to be awarded during 2017-18 for station redevelopment. Allocation for highways has been increased from Rs 57,976 crore in 2016-17 to Rs 64,900 crore in 2017-18. Around 2,000 km of coastal connectivity roads have been identified for construction and development.
The dark horse in the transport sector, the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) has gathered pace. Last year, when I asked Minister Nitin Gadkari at a CII meet, why the PMGSY programme, which had tremendous potential, was not going anywhere - he responded that it did not fall under his ministry but that the government was working on an impetus for it.
The pace of construction of PMGSY roads has accelerated to reach 133 km per day in 2016-17, as against an average of 73 km during the period 2011-2014. And, the Budget has continued to provide Rs 19,000 crore in 2017-18 for this scheme. Together with the contribution of States, an amount of Rs 27,000 crore will be spent on PMGSY in 2017-18.
The other big bang boost has been for the housing sector. National Housing Bank will refinance individual housing loans of about Rs 20,000 crore in 2017-18. Affordable housing has been given the ´infrastructure´ status, which will enable these projects to avail benefits including interest subvention. Further, a target to complete 1 crore houses by 2019 has been set for the homeless and those living in kutcha houses.
Allocation for Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) has been raised from Rs 20,000 crore in 2016-17 to Rs 29,000 crore in 2017-18. Owing to these reforms, there is a likelihood of an ample availability of affordable housing in the next three years.
Among other infrastructure projects, the Metro projects will see the introduction of a Metro Policy and higher allocation of Rs 18,000 crore, against Rs 10,000 crore in the previous year. AMRUT and the Smart Cities mission will continue to move forward with an allocation of Rs 9,000 crore, against Rs 7,296 crore, as 60 selected cities gear up to issue tenders for city development.
The Namami Gange project has been allocated an increase of Rs 100 crore from Rs 2,150 crore to Rs 2,250 crore. And, Sagarmala has received an enhanced allocation of Rs 150 crore from Rs 450 to 600 crore. The Swachh Bharat campaign is being vigorously run and the allocation has risen to Rs 16,000 crore. Armed with the demonetisation swell in the banks, the finance minister had some head room to hold back the temptation of hiking the service tax in view of the forthcoming Goods and Service Tax (GST), which was a big relief. Further, though the large corporate sector did not get the tax reduction, the FM reduced taxes by 5 per cent for the MSMEs, which have an annual turnover of Rs 50 crore or less, thereby benefitting nearly 64 lakh companies.
Issues that need further attention by the ministry include implementation of the projects. Even the irrigation projects, which found mention in his last year´s Budget speech where 23 of the 99 projects would require to be completed by March 2017, are likely to miss the deadline. As per CMIE, new investment proposals worth Rs 1.25 lakh crore were observed during the quarter ended December 2016. This is low compared to the average Rs 2.36 lakh crore worth of new investments seen per quarter in the preceding nine quarters of the Modi Government. Data suggests that demonetisation has hit the pace of announcement of new investment proposals during the quarter-ended December 2016. Two hundred and twenty seven new investment proposals worth Rs 81,800 crore were announced during this quarter till November 8, 2016. In comparison, only 177 investment proposals worth Rs 43,700 crore were made between November 9 and December 31, 2016.
As for stalled projects, though the current government was to invigorate the economy by debottlenecking and accelerating these, the data points to the contrary. CMIE capex figures show that year-end stalled project figures for 2016 are at their highest levels since December 1995. The total value of stalled projects has reached Rs 11.70 lakh crore in the December quarter, accounting for 12.11 per cent of the total projects under implementation. Among the prime reasons for which the projects are stalled, ´obstacles in environment clearances´ contribute to 20 per cent while ´lack of promoter interest´ seems to be a growing trend over ´land acquisition issues´.
However, the absolute value of new project announcements shows that 2016 ranks second best among the last five years. This means that but for demonetisation, the economy was set for a run. Even if we examine the performance for the road sector, the contracts awarded and the length of roads constructed in the highway sector has been way behind claims of the road ministry.
The status of construction awarded and completed during September 2016 vis-a-vis targets set forth for 2016-17 are as follows:
However, the stage is set for a revival of the tempo. The Dispute Resolution Bill, release of funds for cases stuck in arbitration, reduction in interest rates, resolution of some severely stuck road projects, consolidation of some road assets and the infusion of some foreign capital, which has come to the rescue for some developers - all has signaled the dawn of the good times by Diwali 2016. And now, with the demonetisation impact easing up, the delayed dawn of good times is on the horizon again.