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Residential prices lower by 7% in 2018; commercial continues forward march

January 2019

Knight Frank India has launched the 10th edition of its flagship half-yearly report – India Real Estate. The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the residential (across eight cities) and office (across seven cities) market performance for the period July-December 2018 (H2 2018). The report has established 2018 to be historically best performing year for the commercial office with leasing at 46.8 million sq ft. The residential market saw upward movement in sales with total sales of residential units recorded at 182,207 units registering a 6 per cent increase over full year 2017.

Mumbai saw total new unit launches of 74,363 units in full year 2018, registering a growth of 220 per cent YoY over a low base of 2017. The majority share of the new launches took place in H2 2018, which was recorded at 38,389 units. The residential sales for the full year of 2018 was at 63,893 units depicting a growth of 3 per cent YoY over 2017. At the end of H1 2018, there were signs of revival in sales, but the same was punctuated around Q4 2018 (October-December 2018) due to the impact of NBFC crisis.

Residential market highlights for Mumbai

  • Total sales in H2 2018 was 31,481 units implying a rise of 4 per cent YoY against same period last year.

  • Full year 2018 witnessed annual sales of 63,893 units recording a marginal growth of 3 per cent YoY over 2017.

  • Total units launched in Mumbai in H2 2018 was 38,389 units – a growth of 413 per cent YoY over a very low base H2 2017.

  • Total launches in full year 2018 was 74,363 units denoting 220 per cent YoY.

  • The significant increase in new launches is attributed to release of supply, that was previously held back due to series of regulatory aspects. The temporary reprieve from the construction ban due to dumping ground issue in Mumbai effective from March 2018 was a significant catalyst for growth.

  • Demonetisation hangover coupled with structural changes like GST and RERA had led to a decadal low in new launches in MMR in 2017. As dust settled on most of these issues, supply volumes were released through 2018.

  • Policy incentives like PMAY and CLSS have helped steer demand towards affordable housing segment. The supply side has accordingly calibrated itself in this period.

  • A significant shift of strategy was seen within new launches. Compact homes are becoming pervasive. Developers chose to reduce the average size of the apartments in order to make the overall ticket size affordable. MMR region saw a decline of approximately 25 per cent in sizes of new launches in 2018 as compared to five years ago.

  • Average price of units in 2018 saw a reduction of 6.8 per cent YoY making the market more affordable.

  • Mumbai Affordability Index level dropped nearly 400 bps, according to Knight Frank Affordability Index. The index indicates that House price to Household Income Ratio in Mumbai has reduced from 11.0 points in 2010 to 7.2 in 2018.

Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India, says, “Mumbai has seen a significant drop of 7 per cent in average prices in 2018, which coupled with reduced sizes of new launches, has brought down the average ticket size in the city. Consequently, homebuyers are getting a better value for their purchase than a few years ago.”

Commercial market highlights Mumbai

  • Commercial office leasing activity was recorded at 5.1 million sq ft in H2 2018, registering a growth of 14 per cent YoY over same period last year.

  • Full year 2018 saw leasing activities to the tune of 7.9 million sq ft showing a growth of 5.4 per cent over last year.

  • The sector posting impressive growth in H2 2018 was BFSI which constituted 32 per cent share of all transactions in this period up from 23 per cent during same period last year. Other services (which includes co-working, media, telecom, consulting, etc) garnered the highest share 43 per cent of total transactions in H2 2018.

  • SBD Central (25 per cent) and SBD West (32 per cent) together comprised 57 per cent of total leasing activities in 2018.

  • Supply of office space in Mumbai for the entire year 2018 was 6.5 million sq ft denoting a 37 per cent YoY decline from 2017.

  • Vacancy was recorded at 19.6 per cent across Mumbai markets.

  • Average rental values for the office market in Mumbai saw a marginal uptick of 1.7 per cent and was recorded at Rs 117 per sq ft a month.

Adds Baijal, “The commercial office transactions has witnessed a growth of 5.4 per cent YoY in full year 2018. Limited supply has helped the city keep rental values buoyant in 2018. Prime markets of BKC and Central Mumbai recorded very low vacancies leading to other regions experiencing higher growth rates.”

Business districts and definition

Business district

Locations

BKC & Off-BKC

BKC, Bandra (E), Kalina and Kalanagar

CBD & Off-CBD

Nariman Point, Cuffe Parade, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mahalaxmi, Worli

Central Mumbai

Parel, Lower Parel, Dadar, Prabhadevi

PBD

Thane, Airoli, Vashi, Ghansoli, Rabale, Belapur

SBD Central

Kurla, Ghatkopar, Vikhroli, Kanjurmarg, Powai , Bhandup, Chembur

SBD West

Andheri, Jogeshwari, Goregoan, Malad

 

Check the full report here