According to Antique Stock Broking, the volume of the cement industry will likely have increased by the high single digits in April 2023 at 35 mtpa, which represents a utilisation of roughly 80% and a significantly higher clinker utilization of 85%. When compared to the same period last year, the volumes are most likely to have increased in the North and West by mid-single digits, while in the East, Central, and South by high single digits. After seeing 9–10% growth in FY23, the brokerage anticipates industry growth to remain strong at 7-8% for FY24, helped by stronger pre-election government spending.
Prices across India remain essentially unchanged since March. After seeing a price decrease of Rs 20 per bag in Q4FY23, prices in the South increased by Rs 10 per bag. While prices in the West and Central areas increased by Rs 3-5/bag, prices in the north of India remained unchanged. Various channel tests indicate a Rs 5/bag pricing decrease in East India.
Domestic pet coke prices have decreased 20% from March to Rs 14,639 in May, and they are anticipated to decrease even more in the adjustment for June. The price of imported fuel continued to decline in May, correcting by an additional 10% month over month, and is currently over 50% below its peak. The effect of a 10% decrease in fuel prices is comparable to a 2% price increase on EBITDA, according to Antique Stock Broking. In the first two quarters of the fiscal year 2023–24, this is projected to result in benefits of Rs 250–300/ton.
India enters a traditionally sluggish time in the second quarter, but thanks to lower costs and more consolidation, earnings might surprise. The largest player in the Indian cement market, Ultra Tech, produced, shipped, and sold 100 million tonnes in FY23. The company recorded volume growth of 15% throughout that time. This was supported by an annual effective capacity utilisation rate of 84 percent.
See also:
Cement volume set to rise to 450MT by FY25 with rising infrastructure
Demand for cement to improve over next 12-18 months
