According to a report by Fitch Ratings, India's coal imports are expected to increase marginally in 2022 compared to 2021 amid a decline in coal prices and a projected increase in higher economic activity.
Moreover, the increasing domestic coal production and prioritisation of coal for the power sector has helped ease the shortage of coal supply crunch in September-October 2021. Coal dispatch to the power sectors has increased by 26% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis to 184 million tonnes (mt) during the October-December period, while total coal production increased by 9% YoY to 207 mt during the same period last year. Domestic coal production is expected to rise gradually in 2022. The moderation in the coal prices and economic growth could increase coal import this year. As per the report, improving coal supply has resulted in the Plant Load Factors (PLF) for coal-fired power plants increasing to 58% in December after declining to 55% or below from September to November 2021. The PLF might remain strong during 2022, driven by robust growth in power demand and improvement in coal supplies. In the Asia-Pacific region (APAC), Fitch said that the prices might witness a crunch in the near term due to seasonally weaker demand for coal and a ban on coal exports in Indonesia. The ban on coal exports by the Indonesian government has increased coal prices in January. Recently, the power consumption in major Asian economies has stabilised. During the October-December period, China's domestic coal output had increased by 7.4% on a YoY basis, resulting in a full-year production of 4.7%. Image Source
