India's Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) is operational and an analysis by ICRA ESG Ratings covering 14 companies in cement and aluminium finds a limited near-term financial impact but rising costs over time. The report indicates initial compliance costs remain absorbable while continued reliance on credit purchases may escalate production costs as emission targets tighten. The assessment suggests the effect becomes more pronounced by FY27 if current trends persist.

At an assumed carbon price of $10 per t of CO2, ICRA ESG estimates profitability for some cement companies could decline by up to 19 per cent, while aluminium players could face a hit of around three per cent. The analysis highlights widening emission gaps, with the cement sector deficit rising from about 0.5 mn t of CO2 equivalent in FY26 to 1.3 mn t in FY27. Aluminium sector gaps are projected to increase from 0.5 mn t to 1.4 mn t over the same period.

Companies that undertake timely emission reductions through measures such as blended cement, alternative fuels and renewable energy could generate surplus credits and limit compliance costs, according to the report. In contrast, firms maintaining current emission intensity levels are likely to incur recurring credit requirements, especially under higher production growth scenarios. ICRA ESG characterises the scheme primarily as a transition signalling mechanism designed to nudge companies towards lowering emission intensity rather than create an immediate financial burden.

The report sets breakeven thresholds for emission reductions, noting cement firms would need to reduce emission intensity by around 0.7 per cent in FY26 and 2.7 per cent in FY27 from FY24 levels to avoid additional credit costs. For aluminium, the required reductions are about 1.6 per cent and 5.2 per cent respectively. ICRA ESG warns that early action will be critical as delayed adjustments could compound compliance costs as the carbon market evolves.