Cement manufacturers in India are likely to raise prices by Rs. 10-15 per bag from mid-October, as they seek to offset persistent increases in power and fuel costs. Emkay Research said its channel checks indicated a high probability of an increase from October 12, supported by the start of the busy construction season and favourable demand-supply conditions.

The sector had implemented similar rate adjustments of Rs. 10-15 per bag during the first quarter, but the increases were insufficient to cover higher operating costs. Prices also softened during July and August because of the monsoon, widening the gap between realisations and input expenses. Delayed plant expansion programmes have pushed clinker utilisation rates towards 79 per cent by FY28, helping to balance market fundamentals.

Emkay Research said steady volume offtake was supporting cement consumption, with non-trade demand driving activity across regional markets. Industry volumes are expected to grow by 7-8 per cent year on year during the first half of FY27, while demand momentum is projected to remain firm over the following 18 months. The outlook includes the busy construction season in the second half of FY27 and infrastructure activity linked to general elections in the first half of calendar year 2029.

The brokerage expects overall cement demand to record a compound annual growth rate of about 7 per cent between FY26 and FY28. However, elevated operating expenses are likely to continue weighing on profitability. Input costs have risen by Rs. 300-400 per t over the past six to seven months, with the full impact expected to become visible in second-quarter earnings and remain persistent through the second half of FY27.

Spot prices for petcoke and imported coal are approximately 20 per cent and 16 per cent above their second-quarter averages, at USD 175 per t and USD 150 per t, respectively. Packing costs have also increased, with polypropylene granule prices rising above Rs. 135 per kg. Emkay Research estimated that second-quarter earnings could decline by Rs. 200-250 per t sequentially because of higher fuel bills and negative operating leverage, and said the sector requires sustained price increases of about Rs. 10 per bag to offset cost inflation.