Nuvama Institutional Equities has warned that India's cement industry is expected to record subdued volume growth in the first half of fiscal year 2026-27 before a recovery in the second half. The brokerage assessed that price increases implemented in April 2026 will be insufficient to offset an overall decline in sector profitability. It attributed the outlook to weak demand and fresh capacity additions scheduled during fiscal years 2026-27 and 2027-28 that are likely to keep prices under pressure.

The report noted that demand was sluggish in April and May 2026 owing to global uncertainty, labour shortages, heatwaves, constraints in raw materials and unseasonal rainfall. Producers raised prices across regions in April to mitigate rising petcoke costs and higher packaging expenses, but the increases proved short lived. Nuvama reported that standard petcoke prices rose to USD153/t, around USD41/t higher than in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025-26.

Price correction followed weaker demand, limiting the net increase to about Rs 10-12 per bag by the end of the quarter. Imported petcoke prices have since fallen to USD132/t from a recent peak of USD168/t, although they remained roughly USD20/t higher quarter on quarter. The brokerage expected the higher input cost impact to begin reflecting from late quarter one of FY27 and to continue into early quarter two.

Nuvama also estimated that crude linked increases were likely to raise packaging costs by about Rs 120-150/t and to exert upward pressure on freight. It warned that soft demand combined with significant new supply coming on stream in FY27-28 would keep pricing under strain and constrain near term margin recovery. The report concluded that volume growth was likely to be sluggish in the first half of FY27 before recovering in the second half.