Going forward, domestic steel mills are targeting capacity expansion of nearly 40 per cent through till FY31, adding 80-85 mt, translating into an investment pipeline of $ 45-50 billion. So, Jhunjhunwala points out that continuing the safeguard duty will be vital to prevent a surge in imports and protect domestic prices from external shocks. While in FY26, the industry operating profit per tonne is expected to hold at around $ 108, similar to last year, the industry’s earnings must meaningfully improve from hereon to sustain large-scale investments. Else, domestic mills could experience a significant spike in industry leverage levels over the medium term, increasing their vulnerability to external macroeconomic shocks.(~$ 60/tonne) over the past one month, compressing the import parity discount to ~$ 23-25/tonne from previous highs of ~$ 70-90/tonne, adds Jhunjhunwala. With this, he says, “the industry can expect high resistance to further steel price increases.”

Domestic HRC prices have increased by ~Rs 5,000/tonne
“Aggressive capacity additions (~15 mt commissioned in FY25, with 5 mt more by FY26) have created a supply overhang, temporarily outpacing demand growth of ~11-12 mt,” he says...

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