India’s energy ecosystem is showing early signs of stress amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions in West Asia, impacting global energy supply chains, particularly through critical routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Addressing Parliament recently, Narendra Modi termed the situation concerning while assuring proactive measures to safeguard energy security.

Industrial clusters are witnessing localised disruptions in CNG and LPG supply, prompting businesses to shift towards alternative fuels such as coal. With India importing nearly half of its natural gas requirements as LNG, industries remain highly exposed to global supply uncertainties. In contrast, the power sector continues to remain stable due to its strong dependence on coal and renewables.

Coal demand has risen steadily, crossing 1.25 billion tonnes annually, driven by sectors such as power, cement and sponge iron. Recent trends indicate tightening demand, with Coal India’s e-auction premiums reaching around 35 per cent above notified prices, reflecting increased urgency among buyers.

While substitution remains limited in sectors like fertilisers and chemicals, coal has emerged as a critical fallback option in the short to medium term. Despite firming demand, the market remains balanced, supported by adequate domestic availability and healthy stock levels of 18–20 days at power plants.

According to Vinaya Varma, the current scenario reflects a behavioural shift in fuel consumption, with coal playing a key role in maintaining operational continuity during global uncertainty. Overall, while no immediate energy crisis is evident, evolving disruptions are beginning to test India’s energy resilience."