India is set for a sharp rise in demand for iron ore, coking coal and potash, fuelled by accelerating infrastructure investment and a growing manufacturing sector, according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook.

The report projects that India’s annual steel demand will quadruple over the next 25 years, directly increasing the requirement for steelmaking raw materials. While India has exported an average of 30 million tonnes of iron ore annually over the past nine years, BHP notes that the country will increasingly act as an opportunistic importer during periods of domestic supply disruption.

On global markets, BHP forecasts mixed dynamics in the year ahead: refined copper, uranium and potash are expected to remain broadly balanced, while steelmaking raw materials and nickel are likely to face surpluses. India’s strong domestic demand, favourable demographics and rising investments position it as the fastest-growing major economy, with steel production growth expected to offset declines in China’s post-plateau output.

Potash demand in India has surged in line with global trends. Benchmark prices rose through the first half of CY25, with new contracts signed at Rs 30,379 (US$349) per tonne, around 25 per cent higher than last year. Imports grew by more than 20 per cent in the first five months of CY25, underscoring India’s growing role in global fertiliser markets.