Mumbai: The global capacity of newly opened coal mines in 2024 has fallen to its lowest level in a decade, totalling just 105 million tonnes (Mt), according to a new report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM). This marks a 46 per cent drop from 193 Mt in 2023 and the lowest level recorded since 2014.

However, the downward trend may be short-lived. GEM warns that over 2,270 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of coal mine capacity is currently under development worldwide, threatening efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency and United Nations have recommended production cuts of 39 to 75 per cent by 2030 compared to 2020 levels (7,607 Mt), targets that could become unachievable if planned developments proceed.

Dorothy Mei, Project Manager at GEM, cautioned, “Without drastically scaling back new mine capacity, methane emissions will soar—jeopardising the goals of the Paris Agreement.”

The fall in new capacity this year is largely due to India and China, where delays in approvals and eased supply pressures followed a recent surge in coal mine expansions. Yet, coal developers are now aggressively pursuing over 850 new mines, expansions, and recommissioning projects across 30 countries. An additional 35 mine extensions are also under consideration.

China leads proposed developments with 1,350 Mtpa, mostly in its northern and north-western regions. India follows with 329 Mtpa—almost half of which is being advanced by Coal India. Australia (165 Mtpa), Russia (98 Mtpa), and South Africa (73 Mtpa) round out the top five countries with the largest project pipelines.

If all proposed mines are developed, GEM estimates 15.7 million tonnes of methane could be released annually—exceeding Japan’s total annual greenhouse gas emissions. Given methane’s warming potential—over 80 times that of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period—the proposed expansion poses a severe risk to climate goals.