India-Bound Russian Oil Faces Deadline As US Sanctions Begin
According to data from Kpler Ltd, at least 7.7 million barrels of Russia’s Urals crude linked to the two sanctioned producers are set to reach India after US restrictions take effect on 21 November. This raises concerns over whether the shipments will be able to discharge smoothly once the deadline passes.
Most of the tankers are headed to Reliance Industries Ltd’s Jamnagar refinery or Nayara Energy Ltd’s Rosneft-linked Vadinar port, with expected delivery dates spanning late November to December. Shipping destinations, however, can change mid-voyage.
Oil traders are closely monitoring flows of sanctioned Russian crude to India, a major customer, to gauge its demand for alternative supplies. New Delhi has faced increasing pressure from Washington, which argues that continued purchases support Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.
Five of India’s seven refiners, including Reliance, earlier said they would stop taking delivery of Russian crude after 21 November. State-run Indian Oil Corporation will continue buying non-sanctioned grades, while Nayara Energy — which depends entirely on Russian cargoes — is still lifting shipments.
It remains unclear whether Indian companies have sought US exemptions to keep importing crude from Rosneft or Lukoil beyond the deadline. Hungary recently secured an exemption for Russian oil and gas, and Washington has granted limited waivers for select Lukoil transactions.
From Friday, four of Russia’s largest producers — responsible for as much as 80 per cent of its crude exports to India — will fall under sanction, exposing buyers to the risk of secondary sanctions.
If the tankers fail to arrive before the deadline, they may idle offshore while owners consider next steps, which could include ship-to-ship transfers or diversions to alternative locations such as Malaysian waters or even China.