Europe is increasingly relying on India to supply diesel as Russian and US flows falter. Russia's seaborne diesel and gasoil exports averaged about 150,000 barrels per day in the first 25 days of August, down about 610,000 barrels per day from a year earlier and 81 per cent below the five-year average, according to Vortexa. Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted Russian refining and export infrastructure, with 32 attacks in July and August and an assault on the 260,000-barrel-per-day Perm refinery leaving only about 28 per cent of crude distillation capacity operational.

The Black Sea accounted for about 44 per cent, or 380,000 barrels per day, of Russia's diesel and gasoil exports last year, but port and refinery disruptions have cut available volumes. No diesel cargoes have been exported from Tuapse since a May strike and the port handled about 90,000 barrels per day, roughly 10 per cent of Russia's total diesel exports in 2025. Russia has increased seaborne gasoline imports to roughly 125,000 barrels per day in August, equivalent to about 470,000 tonnes (t) for the month.

For Europe, India is filling part of the gap left by Russia while the United States is showing signs of retreat. The US supplied about half of Europe's seaborne diesel imports in August, around 520,000 barrels per day, compared to about a quarter a year earlier. Shipments peaked near 540,000 barrels per day in the first half of August before falling to about 350,000 barrels per day in the second half, a decline of roughly 35 per cent.

The Strait of Hormuz is offering limited relief, with only 37 crossings by MR2-sized or larger tankers in the first 27 days of August. About 230,000 barrels per day of clean products west of Hormuz were transferred offshore Oman in the first three weeks of August, down from about 400,000 barrels per day in June. Europe approaches its peak winter diesel-demand period with inventories already low and refineries on both sides of the Atlantic facing autumn maintenance, leaving limited room for further supply disruptions.