Processors in India have rushed to capitalise on tight global fuel markets and are set to export their highest volumes since September. The country, the world's fourth?largest refining hub, is expected to ship about one point four million (mn) barrels a day of petroleum products in July, roughly one fifth higher than a year earlier and nearly 50 per cent more than the volume moved in May, Kpler vessel?tracking estimates show. Strong margins have encouraged refiners to maximise throughput. This activity has pushed refined product prices to multi?year highs.

The rise in exports follows disruptions that tightened supplies from other exporters, with increased attacks in the Middle East and drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure prompting Moscow to curtail product shipments. Gulf competitors, traditionally major diesel and jet fuel suppliers, have been hamstrung by the conflict, creating opportunities for Indian processors. Kpler analysts say improved refining economics and reduced Russian product flows explain much of the growth.

Rising geopolitical risks could alter the trade. The United States has reimposed a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and announced a 20 per cent toll on goods transiting the waterway, steps that could disrupt crude flows. So far, Russian crude imports have allowed Indian refineries to run at high utilisation and India has taken in two point six million (mn) barrels a day of Russian oil this month, amounting to more than half of the country's needs, according to Kpler.

Policy moves have also supported shipments, with New Delhi cutting export taxes as local stocks swelled and the oil minister saying inventories cover 75 to 80 days. Refiners continue to press plants to maintain output while monitoring supply risks, and officials may impose export limits if crude disruptions persist. The gains for processors are therefore substantial but remain vulnerable to further shifts in regional security and shipping arrangements.