India has begun a calibrated rebalancing of its crude import strategy as Middle Eastern suppliers led by Saudi Arabia regain share while Russian volumes remain significant but constrained by geopolitics and compliance. Ship tracking data indicate that average imports during February one to eighteen were four point eight five million (mn) barrels per day (bpd), down eight per cent from January's five point two five million (mn) bpd. The decline followed US sanctions and the European Union's latest package.

Kpler's lead research analyst, Sumit Ritolia, estimated Russian shipments fell from around one point two eight million (mn) bpd in December 2025 to one point two two million (mn) in January and to about one point zero nine million (mn) in early February, a roughly 10 per cent month-on-month easing. He said Russian crude imports into India were expected to ease further toward eight hundred thousand to one million bpd in March, signalling stabilisation rather than collapse.

As Russian volumes eased, the Gulf filled the gap with Saudi shipments tracking at record levels, with arrivals in February seen at around one million to one point one million (mn) bpd and month-to-date arrivals peaking near one point four million (mn) bpd before expected moderation. On current trends Saudi Arabia was positioned as India's top supplier in February, followed by Russia and Iraq, with combined flows and sanctions risk driving near-term volatility shaped by shipping and logistics rather than pricing alone.

The Vadinar refinery in Gujarat, where Rosneft is the largest shareholder, remains central to flows of Russian grades and now depends on them for its crude needs. Analysts noted that Russian medium sour grades have been valuable for complex refiners and that reducing Russian barrels was likely to raise crude costs by two to three US dollars per barrel, with marginal Venezuelan purchases offsetting some of the impact but not replacing volumes. India is expected to maintain baseline Russian volumes while diversifying supply, keeping a pragmatic balance between operational needs and policy pressures.