Shell India forecasts gas demand in India to rise by 50 per cent or more over the next decade, supporting reliability as solar and wind capacity expands and meeting industrial and residential needs alongside growing electricity consumption driven by artificial intelligence (AI). The company said India’s energy demand rose by nearly 40 per cent over the past decade and is expected to continue accelerating, with consumption projected to surpass that of the United States in the 2040s.

Natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are positioned as transition fuels to support grid stability amid expanding solar and wind capacity, meet industrial and residential demand and serve growing power needs from digital infrastructure and data centres. The report envisaged renewables supplying 59 per cent or more of electricity by 2050, with low-carbon fuels playing a major role, particularly in hard-to-electrify sectors. It highlighted strong domestic bioenergy potential and policy support as drivers of future low-carbon fuel growth.

Transport electrification is expected to accelerate, with electric vehicle (EV) adoption rising across vehicle categories and reducing oil demand in long-term scenarios. The report estimated EVs displacing the equivalent of 41 per cent of oil demand in 2050 in Archipelagos, 53 per cent in Surge and 58 per cent in Horizon when compared with travel by internal combustion vehicles. The scenarios were described as reflecting divergence in geopolitics and economic models, with Archipelagos focused on security and self-reliance, Surge on AI-led growth and Horizon on climate-led rapid decarbonisation.

Buildings are expected to shift towards cleaner energy, with electrification and natural gas use expanding in residential sectors and a broad move away from traditional biomass. Energy use in commercial buildings was projected to rise two to four times across scenarios, driven by services and rapidly growing demand from data centres, underscoring the need for coordinated policy and investment to manage the transition.