India is likely to continue importing Russian crude oil at around current levels after US President Donald Trump temporarily waived sanctions and tariffs targeting major buyers of Russian energy. The decision removes an immediate threat of steep trade penalties for countries purchasing Russian oil and could allow Indian refiners to retain access to discounted supplies.

Trump signed an executive order exempting buyers from sanctions, restrictions and duties authorised under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. The waiver came a day before a 30-day enforcement deadline expired. The legislation, signed on September 18, had allowed tariffs of up to 100 per cent on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas, as well as sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers.

The exemption is not limited to India and could also benefit China, although the US administration can reconsider the decision later. India was the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude, with purchases averaging 1.8 mn barrels per day in 2026, according to ship-tracking data. China followed at 1.2 mn barrels per day, while Italy, Turkey and the Netherlands completed the top five.

Indian imports were about 1.82 mn barrels per day in September, compared with approximately 1.49 mn barrels per day for China. Shipping analytics firm Kpler expects India’s purchases to remain between 1.8 mn and 1.9 mn barrels per day in October. However, volumes remain below the year’s highs, when imports reached 2.6 mn barrels per day in June and 2.57 mn barrels per day in July.

Russian crude gained importance for Indian refiners after Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and Western restrictions redirected discounted supplies towards Asian markets. Russian oil’s share of India’s imports, previously about 2 per cent or less, later rose to 40 to 50 per cent. Urals crude traded at an average discount of $23 per barrel to Brent in September 2026, preserving a significant cost advantage. A US Treasury decision on October 9 also allowed Russian diesel sales globally until April 7, 2027, making enforcement of the new law less likely.