Adani Power Limited (APL) has solidified its position as India’s largest private coal-based independent power producer (IPP), with a total capacity of 18,150 MW across 12 plants in eight states, according to a Morgan Stanley research report. The company has successfully acquired and revitalised 4,370 MW of stressed assets, with an additional 2,900 MW integration currently underway.

APL has consistently maintained plant availability above 90 per cent, supported by digital operations and in-house coal sourcing and logistics expertise. The company holds an 8 per cent share in India’s coal capacity and generation, second only to NTPC, and is projected to increase its market share to 15 per cent by FY32, supported by a 41.9 GW capacity pipeline—2.5 times its current portfolio.

The report highlights APL’s strong track record in reviving distressed assets. The 1,370 MW Raipur plant, acquired in 2019, saw EBITDA rise twelvefold from Rs 210 million to Rs 2.4 billion in FY25. Similarly, the 1,200 MW Mahan plant, acquired in 2022, quadrupled EBITDA to Rs 1.9 billion in three years, with debt fully repaid. The Raigarh plant, once non-operational, now generates Rs 1.27 billion in annual EBITDA. Recent FY25 acquisitions—including Mutiara (1,200 MW), Korba (600 MW), Butibori (600 MW) and Dahanu (500 MW)—are expected to make meaningful contributions to earnings in FY26–FY27.

APL’s financials have markedly improved, with net debt-to-EBITDA falling from 9.7x in FY19 to 1.8x in FY25, aided by regulatory recovery and resolution of legacy issues. The company has demonstrated rapid execution, completing India’s largest supercritical plant at Mundra (4,620 MW) in record time and commissioning the Godda transnational plant within 3.5 years during the pandemic.

Most regulatory matters have been resolved favourably. The Supreme Court dismissed allegations from a short-seller report, and market regulator SEBI recently cleared the Adani Group. Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage of Adani Power with an ‘Overweight’ rating and a price target of Rs 818, implying a 30 per cent upside. The report forecasts APL’s capacity and EBITDA to increase 2.5x and 3x respectively by FY33.