Global coal demand peaked in 2025 at 8.85 billion tonnes and is expected to gradually decline to 2023 levels by 2030, as competition from alternative power sources intensifies, according to a market report by the International Energy Agency.

“Despite uncharacteristic trends in several key coal markets in 2025, our forecast for the coming years has not changed substantially from a year ago: we expect global coal demand to plateau before edging down by 2030,” said Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at the agency.

The report identifies renewables, natural gas and nuclear power as the main competitors to coal, noting that around two-thirds of global coal consumption is driven by the power generation sector. While overall demand is expected to begin declining from 2026, industrial coal consumption is projected to remain relatively resilient in the near term.

In China, the world’s largest coal consumer, usage is forecast to fall by 2030 amid the rapid deployment of renewable energy and government targets aimed at peaking coal consumption. China also cut coal imports in 2025 due to oversupply and weak domestic demand, a trend the IEA expects to continue, contributing to a broader slowdown in global coal trade.

Other major markets, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea, are also reducing coal imports, further weighing on international trade flows.

By contrast, India is expected to remain a key growth market. The IEA projects India’s coal demand to increase by about 3 per cent per year, adding roughly 200 million tonnes by 2030. Demand in Southeast Asia is also forecast to rise, with consumption expected to grow by around 4 per cent over the same period.