Record-breaking heatwaves are directly driving up electricity demand and increasing India’s reliance on fossil fuels, a new study warned on Thursday. The report urged urgent investment in renewable energy storage and smart grid infrastructure to break what it calls India’s “heat–power trap”.

The study, Breaking the Cycle, published jointly by Climate Trends and Climate Compatible Futures, shows a sharp rise in heatwave days above 40 degrees Celsius over the past decade. Fourteen states recorded a 15 per cent increase in summer heat intensity between 2015 and 2024. India’s annual average temperature in 2024 was 0.65 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 baseline.

As temperatures rose, electricity consumption surged. Heatwave conditions alone added nearly 9 per cent to India’s peak power demand between April and June 2024, contributing to 327 million tonnes of CO? emissions, the report said. Fossil-based power consumption during summer months over the decade added 2.5 gigatonnes of CO?.

“Rising temperatures have consistently increased electricity demand, mainly for cooling, which has deepened dependence on fossil fuels,” said Dr Manish Ram, CEO of Climate Compatible Futures. Meeting summer demand spikes with fossil energy, he added, has worsened emissions and air pollution, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities.

Despite a rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity from 84 GW in 2015 to 209 GW in 2024, coal remains the dominant source of power. Fossil-fuel capacity grew from 195 GW to 243 GW in the same period. While renewable generation rose 121 per cent, fossil-based output still increased by 50 per cent.

Regions already experiencing harsh summers are under the greatest grid stress. Central and eastern states such as Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh saw an average of 50 heatwave days annually between 2014 and 2024. Northern states, including Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana, recorded the steepest temperature increases.

Heat is also intensifying in regions previously considered moderate. Uttarakhand experienced a rise from zero heatwave days in 2023 to 25 in 2024, with summer temperatures rising 11.2 per cent, while Ladakh saw a 9.1 per cent increase.

The report emphasised that the heat–power feedback loop disproportionately affects rural and low-income populations, exposing them to heat stress and inconsistent energy supply. Socioeconomic vulnerabilities are worsened by inadequate cooling options, unreliable electricity access and weak infrastructure resilience.

Dr Ram said states experiencing heat-driven demand surges must “urgently expand renewable energy and storage capacity” to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Even renewable-heavy states, he noted, are seeing the limits of solar and wind integration without adequate storage and flexible grid systems.

Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, said heatwaves and power shortages “can no longer be treated as separate crises”. Strengthening the grid, investing in storage and enabling climate-resilient electricity systems, she said, are the only durable solutions.

The study flagged critical gaps in Heat Action Plans nationwide. Only four states, three cities and one district currently integrate renewable energy-based backup systems—such as solar power or battery storage—into their heat preparedness frameworks.

The report called for merging energy planning with climate adaptation, including renewable backup systems, improved demand forecasting and urban cooling strategies to strengthen climate resilience. It also cited research from Ember and CREA indicating that India could avoid expanding coal if it meets its 2032 capacity targets, and that coal power generation would begin to decline if the country adds 50 GW of renewable capacity annually until 2035.