Crisil has warned that over 35 gigawatt (GW) of renewable capacity may face grid curtailment in fiscal 2027 owing to a slow rollout of transmission infrastructure. The rapid addition of renewable capacity has heightened the risk of evacuating surplus power during daytime, increasing pressure on the transmission network. The ratings agency projected that exposure to curtailment could reach 35-37 GW in 2026-27 if current transmission expansion does not keep pace with new capacity.

The agency noted that projects without dedicated transmission infrastructure, known as temporary general network access (TGNA), accounted for 80 per cent of total curtailment in India between April and December 2025. Between November 2025 and February 2026 these projects experienced nearly 39 per cent of their capacities being curtailed. Rajasthan and Gujarat, which together account for 45 per cent of the country’s renewable generation capacity, faced the most significant curtailment, with around 13-14 GW suffering higher reductions of up to 50 per cent.

Crisil said it expected about 20 GW of fresh inter-state transmission system renewable capacity to be commissioned and to begin operations on TGNA in 2026-27, adding to existing TGNA capacity of nearly 17 GW as of February 2026. The combination of new and existing TGNA capacity may therefore push exposed capacity to between 35 and 37 GW in fiscal 2027. Long-term general network access (LT-GNA) offers dedicated transmission infrastructure, multi-year access and stronger scheduling rights, and conversion from TGNA to LT-GNA is likely as transmission projects come online.

The ratings agency warned that an average curtailment of 50 per cent over a 12-month period could reduce an entity's debt service coverage ratio by up to 10 basis points (bps) and lower the equity internal rate of return by up to 150 basis points. Policy measures such as hour-split access for solar capacities and increased adoption of battery energy storage systems are expected to mitigate curtailment and improve transmission utilisation over time. The agency said medium to long term transmission development and storage deployment will be key to managing the risk without immediate new subsidies.