Crisil Intelligence projected that power demand will rise five point five to six point five per cent year on year in fiscal 2027, reaching 1,815 to 1,825 billion units (bn units) as El Nino conditions expected from July raise cooling needs. The agency cited higher temperatures, lower rainfall, steady economic growth and a low base of comparison. The outlook places the rise in demand at around six per cent for the current financial year.

Consumption in March stood at 149 bn units, up from 147 bn units a year earlier and the highest March level since at least 2010. Real time electricity market volumes in March rose 41.7 per cent year on year to 5,283 million units (mn units) from 3,727 mn units. Despite higher volumes, the average market clearing price in the real time market fell 10 per cent year on year to Rs 3.71 per unit, indicating ample system availability.

On the supply side, generation in March rose one point eight per cent year on year to 163 bn units, with all major fuels except gas recording gains. Renewable generation was supported by capacity additions after the country added 50.9 gigawatts of renewable capacity including small hydro in fiscal 2026. Coal based output edged up around zero point four per cent year on year and its share rose to 73 per cent in March from the fiscal 2026 average of 68 per cent.

Hydro and nuclear generation grew 13.8 per cent and eight point three per cent year on year respectively. The report said that rising temperatures and weather related factors, along with steady economic growth, are likely to support higher electricity consumption in the current financial year. Policymakers and utilities will need to balance demand growth with further renewable additions and system flexibility. The market outlook therefore points to a demand led recovery moderated by evolving supply dynamics.