Crisil expects housing sales value growth to moderate to four–six per cent in fiscal year 2027 as average selling price growth and demand flatten. The ratings firm noted a strong post?pandemic surge with a compound annual growth rate of 26 per cent from FY22 to FY25.

Sales value was Rs 4.6 trillion (tn) in FY25 and is estimated at Rs 4.8–5 tn in FY26 and Rs 5.1–5.3 tn in FY27. The FY27 outcome reflects a three–five per cent price rise and zero–two per cent demand growth, resulting from both pricing and supply dynamics.

Average selling price growth is expected to ease to three–five per cent in FY27 after an 11 per cent CAGR from FY22 to FY25 and a seven–nine per cent increase in FY26. Inventory is likely to rise to three point two–three point four years from under three years, and approval issues are easing in Pune and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region while Bengaluru remains to be watched. This will set a higher base for future comparisons and could limit upside in volumes.

Premium and luxury housing is set to account for 38–40 per cent of launches in FY27, up from 12 per cent in FY22, as buyers seek larger units and amenities. Healthy collections aligned with construction progress have supported steady operating performance and reduced developers' reliance on external debt, and the segment yields higher realisations and gross margins, bolstering sales and collections.

Crisil projects cash flow from operations to grow 15–17 per cent in FY27, supported by collections growth of 22–24 per cent among a study of 33 developers, and expects debt?to?CFO to be 1.1–1.3 times. These metrics should support developers' credit profiles despite lower sales growth, but the firm warned that weaker demand, aggressive launches and global geopolitical uncertainty that could spur inflationary pressures are risks to watch.