The Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD) and the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) have launched a joint initiative to assess the economic repercussions of Arctic ice melt on India. This collaboration aims to understand how the loss of sea ice in the Arctic could affect India's monsoon patterns and agricultural productivity.

The project will also explore the broader implications of the Northern Sea Route on global trade and the Indian economy. Research from IGSD suggests that reducing methane emissions by 45% by 2030 could significantly lessen both global and Arctic warming by the 2040s.

The partnership will use a detailed Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate potential disruptions to agriculture, food security, and infrastructure caused by changes in monsoon patterns. Additionally, a global trade model (GTAP) will analyse the economic impact of the Northern Sea Route, considering the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and its contribution to global warming.

Durwood Zaelke, President, IGSD, highlighted the strategic significance of this research. "Our goal is to provide policymakers with essential data to make informed decisions that safeguard both the environment and the economy," he said.

Zerin Osho, Director-India Program, IGSD, emphasised the importance of these findings for India's foreign policy and strategic interests in the Arctic. "This research will support India's strategic positioning and contribute to its leadership in the Global South," Osho added.

Sanjib Pohit, Professor, NCAER, noted the link between India's economic stability and climate patterns. "This collaboration will help develop robust models to anticipate and address the adverse effects of climate change, particularly those resulting from Arctic ice melt, on our agriculture and economy," Pohit said.

(ET)