Dr Arvind Virmani, Member of NITI Aayog, released the third edition of Trade Watch Quarterly on 14 July 2025 in New Delhi, covering India’s trade performance for Quarter 3 of FY25 (October–December 2024).

Alongside a detailed analysis of India’s trade position, the report’s thematic section delves into recent changes in United States tariff structures, evaluating the implications for India’s export competitiveness and opportunities in key sectors.

In Q3 FY25, India’s merchandise exports rose by 3 per cent to USD 108.7 billion, while imports increased by 6.5 per cent to USD 187.5 billion. A strong services surplus of USD 52.3 billion—driven by 17 per cent growth in services exports—helped reduce the trade gap, highlighting India’s expanding strength in global services. Export composition remained broadly stable, with aircraft, spacecraft and related parts entering the top ten export categories, showing a year-on-year rise of over 200 per cent.

India was ranked the fifth-largest exporter of Digitally Delivered Services (DDS) in 2024, recording DDS exports of USD 269 billion. Since 2014, high-tech merchandise exports—particularly in electrical machinery and arms/ammunition—have seen steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6 per cent.

The report’s thematic section outlines how the evolving US tariff regime may benefit India. With a relative tariff advantage over key competitors, Indian exporters are well-positioned to expand their share in the US market, particularly in pharmaceuticals, textiles, and electrical machinery. However, these gains will require agile, responsive policymaking to navigate a rapidly shifting global trade landscape.

Speaking at the launch, Dr Virmani commended the team behind the publication for its analytical rigour. He noted that India’s trade trajectory increasingly reflects structural improvements in competitiveness and innovation, positioning the country to leverage shifts in global trade dynamics—particularly with the US.

He emphasised that this edition comes at a crucial time, as geopolitical changes, technological advancements, and policy uncertainties reshape global trade. The report offers strategic insights and forward-looking recommendations to enhance India’s trade facilitation and participation in international markets.