India and Canada are poised to sign a 10-year uranium supply agreement valued at $2.8 billion (bn) that would mark a diplomatic reset and provide a steady fuel source for Indian reactors. The contract envisages Cameco Corporation (Cameco), Canada’s largest uranium producer, supplying nuclear fuel over the coming decade. The arrangement follows high-level visits and delegation-level talks between Canadian leaders and the Indian prime minister.

The proposed deal represents a nearly 10-fold increase from the previous $350 million arrangement agreed in 2015 and would translate, at around $86 per pound, into annual shipments of approximately 3.3 million (mn) pounds of uranium oxide. That volume would represent roughly 10 per cent of Cameco’s annual sales volumes. The scale underscores the commercial significance for Canadian mines and for India’s reactor fleet supply chains.

India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer, plans a 10-fold expansion of nuclear capacity to 100 gigawatts by 2047. Domestic uranium production currently stands at about 600 tonnes (t) annually, while reactor demand is expected to cross 1,880 tonnes, creating a widening supply gap. Securing imported uranium is intended to free up indigenous production for other reactors and support the expansion roadmap.

Canada supplies about 13 to 15 per cent of global uranium output and is seeking to diversify markets beyond long-standing energy ties with the United States, which currently receives roughly 93 per cent of Canadian crude oil exports. The uranium agreement is part of a broader economic dialogue that includes critical minerals, crude oil, liquefied natural gas and advanced technology cooperation. Leaders are expected to resume talks on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with ambitions to double bilateral trade to $50 billion (bn) by 2030.

Officials described the pact as providing greater energy security for India and sustained demand for Saskatchewan’s high-grade uranium deposits. For India the arrangement is presented as a means to ensure a reliable external fuel supply while the domestic industry catches up with reactor demand.