India is set to become a major global player in the petrochemicals industry, driven by a planned capital expenditure of $37 billion (Rs 3.1 trillion) aimed at reducing import dependency and enhancing self-sufficiency, according to S&P Global Ratings.

In its latest report titled “First China, Now India: Self-Sufficiency Goals Will Add To Petrochemicals Supply”, S&P said India’s large-scale capacity expansion—mirroring China’s earlier push—will likely intensify oversupply pressures in Asia’s petrochemical markets.

Currently the world’s third-largest petrochemical consumer after China and the United States, India has historically depended on imports to meet domestic demand. However, a strategic shift toward self-reliance is underway, with India expected to account for nearly one-third of global capacity additions by 2030.

S&P forecasts that India will continue implementing its massive investment plans, including $25 billion from public sector undertakings tied to refinery-linked expansions, and $12 billion from private sector firms, which are likely to remain more flexible in execution.

“India’s capacity additions in petrochemicals, following China’s lead, will increase competition within the broader Asian industry over the coming years,” said Ker Liang Chan, credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings.

The report warns that this expansion could negatively impact regional exporters, as over 50 per cent of India and China’s petrochemical imports currently originate from Asia. With US exports constrained by tariffs, Asian producers may find it difficult to redirect their output, potentially leading to pricing pressure, earnings decline, and industry consolidation.

Despite global headwinds, S&P believes India’s strong domestic demand, particularly for key products such as polyethylene, will help cushion local producers’ earnings. The agency expects India to overtake the US as the world’s second-largest consumer of polyethylene by 2030.

“The self-sufficiency goals of China and India are intensifying structural overcapacity in the sector, especially amid weak global demand recovery and persistent trade tensions,” said Shawn Park, another S&P analyst.

S&P’s report highlights that while China continues to expand petrochemical capacity, India will take over the mantle by 2030, accounting for one-third of new global capacity additions. However, this trend could strain regional exporters, as the Asian market will have limited alternative buyers and few viable export destinations.

In the longer term, S&P expects industry consolidation to accelerate across Asia as margins tighten, even as India’s domestic producers remain resilient due to the country’s robust consumption base and growing industrial demand.