A study by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago projects that India's electricity demand will rise by 12 per cent by 2050, increasing pressure on networks already beset by frequent outages in rural areas. The report notes that over half of rural Indian households experience electricity interruptions multiple times per day and warns that even a modest rise in demand will compound problems unless infrastructure is upgraded. The analysis situates the Indian outlook within wider regional shifts in cooling requirements driven by rising temperatures.

The study finds that roughly five per cent of households currently own air conditioning and that ownership is considerably higher in urban locations, around 13 per cent, than in rural areas where it is about one per cent. Researchers project rapid growth in air conditioning adoption, forecasting that penetration will exceed 50 per cent by 2050, which will channel a substantial share of additional electricity consumption into cooling homes and offices. The paper highlights unequal access to cooling across income groups.

The research warns that climate-driven temperature changes may cause about 430,000 more deaths annually by 2050, with far higher mortality increases concentrated in poorer nations. It identifies 18 countries that are trapped in a deadly combination of extreme heat and limited cooling capacity, home to 676 million (mn) people, and projects that around 377,000 people in those areas could die each year by 2050. Most of the affected populations live in northern sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Southern Asia, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar.

Authors urge policymakers to scale up adaptation measures such as expanded health care access for vulnerable rural populations and short term guaranteed employment schemes to reduce heat mortality. The study notes that wealthier neighbours consuming more electricity for cooling will see far fewer heat deaths.