The seven core OPEC+ countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — met virtually on Monday to review global market conditions and decided to keep their oil output policy unchanged for October amid continuing uncertainty. The group said it would maintain current production settings after assessing supply risks and demand signals. The decision reflected a cautious approach as members weighed disrupted exports and volatile regional dynamics.

The meeting followed an increase in production of around 188,000 barrels per day for September, which completed the rollback of a voluntary production cut of around 1.65 million (mn) barrels per day introduced in 2023. Officials framed the September rise as a measured step intended to restore volumes gradually while monitoring market response. The scale of the rollback has altered baseline supplies without prompting immediate sharp price movements.

Delegates noted that continuing disruptions to oil exports, including those linked to the conflict involving Iran and disturbances around the Strait of Hormuz, have limited the impact of OPEC+ production adjustments on global supplies and prices. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) left the alliance in May this year, citing national interest and a commitment to contribute effectively to meeting market needs, a development that has reshaped coordination dynamics. Participants underlined the importance of closely tracking shipping routes and regional security factors.

OPEC+ will continue to monitor inventories, demand forecasts and geopolitical risks as it evaluates future steps and is expected to meet again in October to review market conditions and production levels. Analysts will watch whether the alliance adopts further gradual changes or retains a steady posture to avoid adding volatility. Markets are likely to remain sensitive to any new supply disruptions and to shifts in member policy.