Mild steel prices in India are expected to increase by around Rs 2,000 per tonne by February, driven by a convergence of structural pressures rather than short-term market sentiment, according to Vedant Goel, CEO and Co-founder, Enlight Metals. He said the anticipated rise reflects deeper shifts across currency movements, raw material availability, energy costs and sustained demand, signalling a new phase for the domestic steel market.

Goel noted that mild steel pricing is no longer influenced in isolation by domestic cycles but is increasingly linked to global economic conditions, fragile supply chains and India’s long-term growth priorities. “What may look like a routine correction is actually the result of multiple pressures building up simultaneously,” Vedant Goel, CEO and Co-founder, Enlight Metals, said.

Currency volatility, particularly the strengthening of the US dollar, has emerged as a key factor. Several critical inputs such as coking coal and certain grades of scrap are imported, making landed costs highly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, freight, insurance, financing costs and longer working capital cycles are compounding the impact, steadily eroding margins and forcing price revisions.

Raw material constraints have also become structural in nature. Scrap, once considered a balancing factor in the mild steel value chain, is now under pressure due to rising global demand for circular manufacturing, export restrictions and logistics challenges. At the same time, repeated disruptions in coking coal supply caused by geopolitical tensions, weather events and reduced mining output are adding to uncertainty in production planning.

On the demand side, sustained infrastructure spending across railways, highways, metros, renewable energy and industrial construction is reshaping the supply-demand equation. Goel emphasised that this consumption is policy-backed and long-term, reducing the likelihood of sharp price corrections.

He added that in this environment, mild steel sourcing must evolve from a transactional activity to a strategic function, with greater emphasis on planned procurement, diversified suppliers, technology-driven visibility and faster decision-making to manage volatility effectively.