The ratings agency ICRA projected that the net loss of the Indian aviation industry will narrow to Rs 110-120 billion (bn) in 2026-27 as recovery in passenger demand continues. The agency attributed the improvement to sustained domestic traffic growth, higher flight operations and gradual recovery in yields amid capacity rationalisation. It indicated that financial stress will remain but will be materially lower than in prior years, and improved ancillary income streams supported cash flows.

ICRA noted that airlines have continued to benefit from robust leisure travel and the resumption of corporate movements, supporting load factors and revenue per seat. The agency observed that cost pressures from fuel and maintenance remain a challenge but could be moderated by operational efficiencies and network optimisation. It expected that ancillary revenue and calibrated capacity additions would help strengthen airline balance sheets, operating discipline and yield management were highlighted as near-term priorities and careful network planning ahead.

Analysts at the ratings firm emphasised that policy support and improved liquidity in the financial system were important to sustain the recovery and reduce default risk in the sector. They suggested that disciplined capacity growth and focus on unit economics would be crucial for translating traffic gains into profitability. The assessment reflected a cautious optimism that industry losses would shrink while profitability would return for some carriers. The firm said slower demand shocks would test resilience but noted sectoral adaptability.

ICRA recommended continued monitoring of global crude oil trends, interest rate movements and possible demand shocks that could alter the recovery path. The agency urged stakeholders to maintain prudence in fleet expansion and maintain cash buffers to absorb unforeseen shocks. Overall, the projection signalled a notable improvement for the Indian aviation industry in the coming financial year. Market participants were advised to prioritise liquidity management and contingency planning.