JM Financial has warned that escalation in the US–Israel and Iran conflict could disrupt shipping through the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf and pose risks to Indian port logistics. The brokerage said liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil shipments were especially vulnerable and refiners shifting suppliers could realign cargo flows, affecting port volumes in March 2026. Container traffic to the Middle East may be affected though major terminals could see limited fallout.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ), which handles nine million (mn) twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) annually, has 15 per cent of Mundra’s volumes linked to the Middle East. That equals around one point three to one point four mn TEUs and could hit monthly volumes at Mundra by three to four per cent, JM Financial said after channel checks. If the conflict lasts beyond three months the brokerage estimated the cumulative annual impact might be about one per cent.

Shippers are seeking routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz, with ports such as Khor Fakkan and Salalah under consideration, and India is diversifying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports. The Habshan?Fujairah pipeline, with capacity of one point five mn barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia’s East?West line to Yanbu, with five mn barrels per day capacity, could ease crude export disruption.

India sourced 50 per cent of its LPG imports in calendar year 25 from Gulf suppliers, and Indian oil marketing companies have agreed to import two point two mn tonnes of LPG from the United States from calendar year 26, equal to 10 per cent of annual imports. JM Financial noted LNG prices had risen about 40 per cent while propane and butane increased about 17 per cent, widening the LNG?LPG price gap and supporting distribution margins for some logistics firms. The brokerage said its views were its own and readers should consult certified experts before making investment decisions.