According to a recent report by the energy think tank EMBER Climate, there's a worrying trend as many national grid plans underestimate the potential of wind and solar deployment, which poses a significant risk to the smooth integration of renewables.
It's noted in the report that out of the 26 grid plans examined, 11 fail to accurately project wind and solar deployment compared to national targets. This raises concerns about whether transmission networks can adequately handle the expected increase in renewable energy installations.
Moreover, there's a troubling estimate that by 2030, around 205 GW of solar capacity might face grid congestion due to 19 out of 23 national grid plans falling short of meeting the benchmarks set by SolarPower Europe's business-as-usual scenario.
Adding to these challenges is the underestimation of annual grid investment, as highlighted by REPowerEU, indicating a shortfall of at least ?5 billion. This emphasises the necessity for additional spending to ensure that grids can effectively support energy policy goals.
The report assesses the current status and potential improvements of national transmission grids across Europe within the context of the energy transition. By evaluating data from transmission networks in 35 European countries, including the EU-27, Norway, Switzerland, the UK, and the Western Balkans, the analysis reveals a concerning reality: several grid plans are based on conservative energy scenarios.
This conservative approach risks leaving transmission networks ill-prepared to accommodate the projected expansion of wind and solar energy installations, which could hinder the progress of the energy transition.
An examination of 35 national grid development plans from European Transmission System Operators (TSOs) shows that planned network developments often lag behind in understanding the realities of the energy transition.