Authorities from Turkmenistan are likely to arrive this weekend in Kabul to discuss commencing the work on the 1,800 kilometre TAPI pipeline, which Unocal vice-president Marty Miller's imagination helped birth—and, if it was not for 9/11, Unocal might just have succeeded.
TAPI is built to transport 33 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas each year from the Galkynysh fields, the world’s second-largest, across Afghanistan and Pakistan into Fazilka in southern Punjab. For over three decades, the project has been viewed as a win for all its participants. Landlocked Turkmenistan would discover markets for its gas, cash-strapped Afghanistan and Pakistan would obtain from transit fees, and hydrocarbon-hungry India from reliable, cheap energy. Even as it fought the Afghan state, the Taliban promised not to attack any TAPI-related development work, knowing it would additionally bring windfall gains. Since 2016, New Delhi has supported TAPI; government-owned energy giant GAIL holds a 5% stake in the TAPI Pipeline Company, the special-purpose consortium behind the project. Despite the hype, though, huge questions are hanging over the project—and not just around the obvious problems associated with pushing a pipeline through a war-torn nation. Funding the pipeline is the biggest of them. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has evaluated the cost of constructing the pipeline itself at some $10 billion. Experts consider the actual amount slightly higher, at $14-16 billion, not including upstream investments required for Turkmenistan to generate the promised 33bcm. Expert Steve Mann has recommended that, in reality, it is very fair to view TAPI as a $40 billion plan. Image Source