Coal inventories at India’s power stations have fallen close to a five-year low, with plants representing more than 40 per cent of the country’s coal-fired capacity holding four days of fuel or less. The position has increased concerns about the power system’s ability to withstand further disruptions and periods of elevated demand.

As of October 4, 69 power stations, representing more than two-fifths of India’s coal power fleet, had fuel for four days or less. Plant operators monitor that level as a minimum reserve, and the current position is the weakest since December 2021, when industrial activity after the pandemic reduced stockpiles across major energy-consuming markets.

Unusually warm conditions and irregular rainfall have sustained demand for cooling, irrigation and industry well into October, when temperatures would normally begin to moderate across much of the country. Heavy rain has interrupted mining operations, while limitations in rail capacity have slowed deliveries and forced power stations to draw down their inventories.

Coal continues to generate nearly 70 per cent of India’s electricity despite rapid expansion in solar and wind power over recent decades. This leaves the electricity system exposed to weather events, transport disruptions and possible strikes at mines. Almost 90 per cent of power stations with low inventories are located away from coal-producing areas, increasing their dependence on rail supply.

The supply pressure could continue to affect preparations for next summer. The period through February is generally the coolest part of the year and provides a limited opportunity to rebuild stockpiles before heatwaves or unexpected increases in demand. Elara Capital India senior vice-president for research Rupesh Sankhe said cooler weather could provide some relief, while distribution utilities may use daily load shedding to manage demand. He added that Coal India and the railways would need to improve supplies to power stations so they can prepare for the summer.