Crisil Intelligence (Crisil) has forecast that Brent crude will average USD 90-95 per barrel in the current fiscal, around 32 per cent higher than in the previous fiscal. It has said that higher oil prices would lift India's current account deficit to two point two per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) from zero point six per cent in fiscal 2026. The agency noted that oil remains the largest source of the goods trade gap, accounting for 36 per cent in fiscal 2026.

Data released alongside the analysis showed that the merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 28.2 bn in May 2026 from USD 22.6 bn a year earlier as exports recorded a broad-based 18 per cent year-on-year rise to USD 45.2 bn in May, compared with USD 43.6 bn in April. Petroleum exports expanded by 54.9 per cent year-on-year against 34.6 per cent, while core exports grew by 12.3 per cent to USD 34.2 bn from 10.4 per cent to USD 31.6 bn.

On a sequential basis, oil exports fell to USD 8.4 bn in May from USD 9.6 bn in April as crude prices eased after an extraordinary surge related to conflict in West Asia. Brent crude averaged USD 107.1 per barrel in May, down 8.7 per cent from April, and the agency indicated that the on-year jump in petroleum exports partly reflected a statistical low base and a 66.2 per cent rise in Brent prices in May.

Crisil warned that elevated energy costs would exert additional pressure on the current account and that recovery in supplies could take several months even if geopolitical tensions subside. The agency also noted that goods exports will need to navigate lingering global trade disruptions, which together with higher import costs could widen external imbalances and pose risks to external financing requirements.