Preliminary vessel-tracking data from commodity analytics firm Kpler showed India imported an average of two point six million (mn) barrels per day of Russian crude in June so far, equal to 53.5 per cent of the country's crude imports during the period. For the month Russian inflows were expected to top two point three five mn barrels per day, which would exceed the previous record of two point two mn in May 2023. Kpler linked the rise to persistent discounts on Russian grades and steady refinery demand.

The surge followed disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz after conflict in West Asia, with the region historically supplying around sixty to seventy per cent of India's crude. Slowed vessel movements reduced flows from several Gulf producers and hit shipments from Iraq, while Saudi and UAE exports were partly sustained by pipelines such as ADNOC's Habshan-Fujairah link. Faced with higher freight risks and uncertain Gulf volumes, Indian refiners increased purchases from North America and Venezuela to offset shortfalls.

Russian barrels have filled the gap created after Western sanctions reshaped global energy flows in 2022. Imports averaged about one point nine one mn barrels per day in May, fell to nearly one point zero four mn in February and rebounded to around two mn in March before June's jump. Analysts said Asian refiners were increasingly treating Russian crude as base-load supply rather than solely discounted opportunistic cargo.

An initial US-Iran agreement could eventually restore Gulf flows, but the US sanctions waiver that made Russian purchases easier recently expired and its renewal remains unclear. Analysts suggested a rapid reduction in Russian deliveries to India would be difficult given the large volumes involved and the months needed to normalise Gulf exports. Industry estimates indicated that each one dollar rise in the oil price could add roughly Rs 180 bn to the annual import bill, and noted Russia had supplied more than 270 mn barrels to India since the Iran conflict began.