Coal Output Falls Again As Power Demand Weakens

26 Nov 2025 CW Team

India’s coal production and despatch declined for the second consecutive month in October, reflecting reduced demand for the fuel from the Power sector and lower nationwide electricity consumption.

According to the Coal Ministry, pan-India coal output fell by 8.5 per cent year-on-year to 77.43 million tonnes (mt) in October 2025 on a provisional basis. Despatch dropped by nearly 5 per cent year-on-year to 80.44 mt.

Industrial production data paint a similar picture. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows coal production (weight: 10.33 per cent) declining by 8.5 per cent year-on-year in October 2025, while the cumulative index for April–October FY26 contracted by 2 per cent year-on-year.

Lignite output also declined for the second straight month. Production dipped slightly by just over 1 per cent to 3.04 mt, though despatch rose by 1.34 per cent to 3.40 mt.

Electricity consumption fell sharply to 132 billion units (BUs) in October 2025, down 6 per cent year-on-year. Coal-based power generation also weakened, recording 93.61 BU in October 2025 and 718.02 BU in April–October 2025, compared with 108.76 BU and 760.50 BU in the corresponding periods of 2024. Coal accounted for 67.21 per cent of total power generation, higher than around 63 per cent in September 2025.

With lower coal demand, the requirement for railway rakes also fell. Average rake loading dropped by 3.47 per cent year-on-year to 289.6 rakes per day, while demand from the Power sector declined by 5.49 per cent to 254.8 rakes per day.

Sluggish electricity demand pushed power exchange prices lower. The Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) reported that higher hydro, wind and solar generation, combined with steady thermal supply, improved liquidity and reduced prices. The market clearing price in the Day Ahead Market (DAM) fell 32 per cent year-on-year to Rs 2.67 per unit in October 2025, while prices in the Real Time Market (RTM) declined nearly 28 per cent year-on-year to Rs 2.73 per unit.

Coal production and despatch had previously fallen in June and July 2025 when monsoon rains disrupted mining. The monsoon months typically see lower electricity consumption, reducing coal demand and supply requirements. However, 2025 has been unusual, with power consumption dropping from May onwards due to early rains and cooler temperatures — unlike 2024, when peak demand hit a record 250 gigawatts.

Looking ahead, domestic coal output is expected to grow by 6–7 per cent annually over the next few years to reach around 1.5 billion tonnes by FY30, supporting future demand and reducing non-essential imports. All-India coal production rose by around 5 per cent year-on-year to 1,047.67 mt in FY25, up from 997.83 mt in FY24.

India’s coal production and despatch declined for the second consecutive month in October, reflecting reduced demand for the fuel from the Power sector and lower nationwide electricity consumption. According to the Coal Ministry, pan-India coal output fell by 8.5 per cent year-on-year to 77.43 million tonnes (mt) in October 2025 on a provisional basis. Despatch dropped by nearly 5 per cent year-on-year to 80.44 mt. Industrial production data paint a similar picture. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows coal production (weight: 10.33 per cent) declining by 8.5 per cent year-on-year in October 2025, while the cumulative index for April–October FY26 contracted by 2 per cent year-on-year. Lignite output also declined for the second straight month. Production dipped slightly by just over 1 per cent to 3.04 mt, though despatch rose by 1.34 per cent to 3.40 mt. Electricity consumption fell sharply to 132 billion units (BUs) in October 2025, down 6 per cent year-on-year. Coal-based power generation also weakened, recording 93.61 BU in October 2025 and 718.02 BU in April–October 2025, compared with 108.76 BU and 760.50 BU in the corresponding periods of 2024. Coal accounted for 67.21 per cent of total power generation, higher than around 63 per cent in September 2025. With lower coal demand, the requirement for railway rakes also fell. Average rake loading dropped by 3.47 per cent year-on-year to 289.6 rakes per day, while demand from the Power sector declined by 5.49 per cent to 254.8 rakes per day. Sluggish electricity demand pushed power exchange prices lower. The Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) reported that higher hydro, wind and solar generation, combined with steady thermal supply, improved liquidity and reduced prices. The market clearing price in the Day Ahead Market (DAM) fell 32 per cent year-on-year to Rs 2.67 per unit in October 2025, while prices in the Real Time Market (RTM) declined nearly 28 per cent year-on-year to Rs 2.73 per unit. Coal production and despatch had previously fallen in June and July 2025 when monsoon rains disrupted mining. The monsoon months typically see lower electricity consumption, reducing coal demand and supply requirements. However, 2025 has been unusual, with power consumption dropping from May onwards due to early rains and cooler temperatures — unlike 2024, when peak demand hit a record 250 gigawatts. Looking ahead, domestic coal output is expected to grow by 6–7 per cent annually over the next few years to reach around 1.5 billion tonnes by FY30, supporting future demand and reducing non-essential imports. All-India coal production rose by around 5 per cent year-on-year to 1,047.67 mt in FY25, up from 997.83 mt in FY24.

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