Covid-19 second wave: Future realty sentiment takes a dip

26 Apr 2021 CW Team

According to the survey, the economy's return to normalcy will depend on the pace of vaccination and the time taken to control the second wave of the pandemic. Apart from the pace of vaccination, government decisions on lockdown restrictions will largely determine the real estate sector's performance in the coming months, the survey said.

In Q1 2021, the future sentiment score saw a decline from 65 in Q4 2020 to 57 in Q1 2021 due to uncertainties resulting from the spread of the second wave of Covid–19 infections. However, it remained in the optimistic zone.

The south zone has seen a marginal decline from 66 in Q4 2020 to 63 in Q1 2021, while the score for the north zone has fallen from 58 in Q4 2020 to 56 in Q1 2021. The Future Sentiment score of the west region witnessed a significant drop from 66 in Q4 2020 to 53 in Q1 2021, while the score for the east zone has fallen from 65 in Q4 2020 to 53 in Q1 2021, it said.

The 'Current Sentiment score' recorded a marginal improvement, inching up from 54 in Q4 2020 to 57 in Q1 2021. This improvement can be attributed to the healthy momentum in the commercial and residential real estate segments during Q4 2020 and during January-February 2021.

A score of above 50 indicates 'Optimism' in sentiments, a score of 50 means the sentiment is 'Same' or 'Neutral', while a score below 50 indicates 'Pessimism'.

Hampered by the second Covid-19 wave concerns, the Future Sentiment score of stakeholders for the next six months has fallen across regions, even while it remains in the optimistic zone. Similarly, the Q1 2021 outlook of supply-side stakeholders reflects caution on the future of the real estate for the next six months, even if their scores remain in the optimistic zone.

With the substantial increase in Covid cases since March 2021, the outlook for residential launches and sales has softened in Q1 2021.

Similarly, the second wave and the resultant mobility restrictions and possible lockdowns in some cities have adversely impacted office occupancy levels. This has resulted in the weakening of the office market outlook for the next six months. On the macroeconomic front, the pace of economic revival seems to have slowed down, with some key economic indicators showing weakening over the last two months. Influenced by the change in macroeconomic developments, stakeholder outlook on the overall economic momentum and on credit availability has turned cautious in Q1 2021, the survey said.

Stakeholder outlook, on the credit availability front, has shifted from positive to observant as 81% of the Q1 2021 survey respondents, down from the 87% of Q4 2020 expect the funding scenario to either improve or remain the same in the coming six months.

Image Source

Also Read: Govt, realty sector help workers cope with second Covid wave

Also Read: CREDAI Pune writes to Maha govt

The 28th edition of the Knight Frank-FICCI-NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index Q1 2021 (January - March 2021) survey has revealed that the six-month outlook for the real estate sector has weakened across the parameters of demand, supply and pricing in Q1 2021, as the second wave of Covid-19 rages in the country, adversely impacting several industry sectors. According to the survey, the economy's return to normalcy will depend on the pace of vaccination and the time taken to control the second wave of the pandemic. Apart from the pace of vaccination, government decisions on lockdown restrictions will largely determine the real estate sector's performance in the coming months, the survey said. In Q1 2021, the future sentiment score saw a decline from 65 in Q4 2020 to 57 in Q1 2021 due to uncertainties resulting from the spread of the second wave of Covid–19 infections. However, it remained in the optimistic zone. The south zone has seen a marginal decline from 66 in Q4 2020 to 63 in Q1 2021, while the score for the north zone has fallen from 58 in Q4 2020 to 56 in Q1 2021. The Future Sentiment score of the west region witnessed a significant drop from 66 in Q4 2020 to 53 in Q1 2021, while the score for the east zone has fallen from 65 in Q4 2020 to 53 in Q1 2021, it said. The 'Current Sentiment score' recorded a marginal improvement, inching up from 54 in Q4 2020 to 57 in Q1 2021. This improvement can be attributed to the healthy momentum in the commercial and residential real estate segments during Q4 2020 and during January-February 2021. A score of above 50 indicates 'Optimism' in sentiments, a score of 50 means the sentiment is 'Same' or 'Neutral', while a score below 50 indicates 'Pessimism'. Hampered by the second Covid-19 wave concerns, the Future Sentiment score of stakeholders for the next six months has fallen across regions, even while it remains in the optimistic zone. Similarly, the Q1 2021 outlook of supply-side stakeholders reflects caution on the future of the real estate for the next six months, even if their scores remain in the optimistic zone. With the substantial increase in Covid cases since March 2021, the outlook for residential launches and sales has softened in Q1 2021. Similarly, the second wave and the resultant mobility restrictions and possible lockdowns in some cities have adversely impacted office occupancy levels. This has resulted in the weakening of the office market outlook for the next six months. On the macroeconomic front, the pace of economic revival seems to have slowed down, with some key economic indicators showing weakening over the last two months. Influenced by the change in macroeconomic developments, stakeholder outlook on the overall economic momentum and on credit availability has turned cautious in Q1 2021, the survey said. Stakeholder outlook, on the credit availability front, has shifted from positive to observant as 81% of the Q1 2021 survey respondents, down from the 87% of Q4 2020 expect the funding scenario to either improve or remain the same in the coming six months. Image Source Also Read: Govt, realty sector help workers cope with second Covid waveAlso Read: CREDAI Pune writes to Maha govt

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