India is exploring the implementation of safeguard duties to curb the influx of steel at low or zero tariffs under the free trade agreement (FTA) with the ASEAN region. This move comes as Chinese companies expand their steel manufacturing capacities in ASEAN countries. Discussions are underway between the steel and commerce ministries, ahead of the next India-ASEAN FTA review talks scheduled for February. Industry experts report that Chinese firms are adding approximately 97 million tonnes (mt) of blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) capacity in ASEAN, expected to be operational within the next 5-6 years. With annual steel consumption in ASEAN at around 75 mt, there are concerns that the surplus production could be redirected to India due to the tariff advantages under the India-ASEAN FTA. “Discussions are ongoing, and measures like imposing a safeguard duty are being considered,” a senior government official said. Alok Sahay, Secretary General of the Indian Steel Association, noted that the influx of 97 mt of new BF-BOF capacity in ASEAN countries poses a threat to Indian steel producers. “Given the current FTA and the limited growth in ASEAN’s consumption, these new capacities are mainly for export. India’s low-to-zero tariffs make it an attractive market compared to the EU or the US,” Sahay added. The South East Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEASI) projects that the region's steel production capacity will reach 145 mt by 2026. Praful Venugopal, CEO of Mittal Steel Indonesia, mentioned that Chinese producers have signed agreements with Indonesia to set up plants that will contribute an additional 20 mt of capacity. Indonesia’s steel consumption is around 17 mt, and these new plants are designed to supply exports. The anticipated oversupply from ASEAN could lead to depressed domestic steel prices in India, where production in FY24 was 139 mt, just slightly above consumption of 136 mt. (ET)