India imported 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from the United States in October — its highest level since 2022 — according to data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler as of 27 October. US export data indicates that October is likely to close at around 575,000 bpd, with November projected between 400,000 and 450,000 bpd. This marks a steep rise from India’s year-to-date average of roughly 300,000 bpd. Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst for refining, supply and modelling at Kpler, said the surge was largely driven by favourable market conditions. “The increase was economics-driven, supported by a strong arbitrage window, a wider Brent-WTI spread, and the absence of Chinese demand, which made WTI Midland crude more competitive on a delivered basis for Indian refiners,” he said. Brent serves as the global oil benchmark, while WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is a US benchmark. WTI Midland refers to a specific grade of American crude. The rise in imports comes amid heightened trade tensions between Washington and New Delhi following US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose sweeping 50 per cent tariffs on India — half of which serves as a punitive duty on Russian oil imports. The increased US purchases reflect India’s effort to diversify its crude sources and ease pressure from these tariffs. Despite the shift, Russia remains India’s largest crude supplier, with average deliveries of around 1.75 million bpd. Iraq ranks second, followed by Saudi Arabia. However, these flows could be disrupted by recent US sanctions against Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for nearly 60 per cent of India’s Russian oil imports. While expanding US crude imports enhances India’s diversification strategy, higher freight costs continue to pose challenges for refiners. Ritolia cautioned that the trend may not last: “The surge highlights India’s refining flexibility and ability to capture short-term opportunities, but it is arbitrage-led, not structural. Longer voyage times, higher shipping costs, and WTI’s lighter, naphtha-rich yield will limit further increases in buying.”