India’s Power Demand Sees Strong Growth in November 2024

10 Dec 2024 CW Team

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November stood at 56.5, signaling expansion in the economy and bolstering demand for power. Peak power demand rose slightly to 207 gigawatts (GW) in November, up from 204 GW a year ago.

As India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.8% in fiscal 2024-25, Crisil expects power demand to continue to track this growth.

Regional Growth and Market Dynamics

Northern states led the surge in power demand, registering a 9% year-on-year increase. In comparison, power demand in the western, southern, and eastern regions grew by 1%, 2%, and 2%, respectively.

The short-term power market saw significant activity, with volumes in the real-time market (RTM) jumping 28% year-on-year to 3.02 billion units (BUs). Meanwhile, the day-ahead market (DAM) saw a 9.8% increase to 5.65 billion units. RTM’s share in the total volume on the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) rose to 31% from 26% in November 2023.

Generation and Coal Stocks Surge

India's electricity generation grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with an estimated 136 billion units (BUs) produced in November. Coal-based generation increased by 3.5%, following a decline in previous months, while renewable energy generation (RE) rose by 4%. Hydro and nuclear power generation saw more significant increases, with hydro output up 43%, benefiting from a favorable base effect, and nuclear power generation rising by 8%.

Coal stocks at thermal power plants increased to 40 million tonnes as of November 30, 2024, compared to 27 million tonnes last year, bolstered by a 7.4% year-on-year rise in coal production post-monsoon.

Outlook for Power Demand

Crisil projects that power demand will rise by 5-6% during the full fiscal year, driven by robust economic activity and weather-related factors. However, demand growth may slow in the coming months due to a moderate winter season.

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India’s power demand rose by 4.3% year-on-year in November 2024, reaching approximately 125 billion units (BUs), as industrial activity rebounded across the country. According to Crisil Market Intelligence & Analytics, industrial and commercial consumers, who account for nearly half of the country’s total power consumption, played a significant role in the surge. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November stood at 56.5, signaling expansion in the economy and bolstering demand for power. Peak power demand rose slightly to 207 gigawatts (GW) in November, up from 204 GW a year ago. As India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.8% in fiscal 2024-25, Crisil expects power demand to continue to track this growth. Regional Growth and Market Dynamics Northern states led the surge in power demand, registering a 9% year-on-year increase. In comparison, power demand in the western, southern, and eastern regions grew by 1%, 2%, and 2%, respectively. The short-term power market saw significant activity, with volumes in the real-time market (RTM) jumping 28% year-on-year to 3.02 billion units (BUs). Meanwhile, the day-ahead market (DAM) saw a 9.8% increase to 5.65 billion units. RTM’s share in the total volume on the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) rose to 31% from 26% in November 2023. Generation and Coal Stocks Surge India's electricity generation grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with an estimated 136 billion units (BUs) produced in November. Coal-based generation increased by 3.5%, following a decline in previous months, while renewable energy generation (RE) rose by 4%. Hydro and nuclear power generation saw more significant increases, with hydro output up 43%, benefiting from a favorable base effect, and nuclear power generation rising by 8%. Coal stocks at thermal power plants increased to 40 million tonnes as of November 30, 2024, compared to 27 million tonnes last year, bolstered by a 7.4% year-on-year rise in coal production post-monsoon. Outlook for Power Demand Crisil projects that power demand will rise by 5-6% during the full fiscal year, driven by robust economic activity and weather-related factors. However, demand growth may slow in the coming months due to a moderate winter season.

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