NSO Uses Model-Based Method For Uttar Pradesh Data Gaps
ECONOMY & POLICY

NSO Uses Model-Based Method For Uttar Pradesh Data Gaps

The National Statistics Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), has released a new study on model-based district-level estimates derived from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2022–23 for Uttar Pradesh. The report, now available on the MoSPI website, marks a step towards more localised, data-driven policymaking.

The NSO conducts large-scale household surveys across diverse socio-economic themes to generate reliable statistical inputs for policymaking. Among these, the HCES plays a vital role by capturing data on household consumption patterns, living standards, and demographic characteristics at national and state levels.

Aim of the Study

The study was undertaken following the National Statistical Commission’s Steering Committee recommendation to pilot model-based estimation techniques for generating district-level insights. A dedicated committee chaired by Dr Mausumi Bose, Former Professor at the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Kolkata, was constituted to explore the feasibility of estimating Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) for each district in Uttar Pradesh using HCES data.

The project received technical support from the NSO and the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Government of Uttar Pradesh.

While HCES data provides robust estimates at national and state levels, it often lacks district-level precision due to limited survey samples. To address this gap, the study adopted a model-based approach, testing whether statistical modelling could generate accurate, cost-effective estimates for smaller administrative units.

Methodology

The research employed a statistical technique called Small Area Estimation (SAE), which enhances data accuracy for smaller regions by combining survey data with auxiliary administrative information. This approach “borrows strength” from related datasets, improving the stability of estimates where direct sampling is insufficient.

The study utilised two types of statistical models — Fay–Herriot (FH) and Spatial Fay–Herriot (SFH) — and incorporated auxiliary data such as:

Number of old-age pension beneficiaries

Number of Ayushman Bharat (PM-JAY) patients

Number of domestic LPG connections

Number of Antyodaya food scheme beneficiaries

Key Findings

The top five rural districts with the highest average MPCE were:

Bagpat

Saharanpur

Gautam Buddha Nagar

Meerut

Ghaziabad

In urban areas, the leading districts were:

Gautam Buddha Nagar

Gonda

Ghaziabad

Bagpat

Lucknow

The study showed that model-based estimation can be a cost-effective and scalable solution for generating district-level statistics using state-level survey data.

Conclusion

The findings reaffirm the potential of statistical modelling as a reliable tool for filling data gaps and improving local-level governance. By providing district-specific insights, the method enables policymakers to design targeted welfare programmes, monitor living standards, and reduce regional inequalities.

The success of this pilot in Uttar Pradesh sets a precedent for extending the model-based approach to other states and socio-economic indicators, such as employment, health, and poverty, advancing India’s commitment to data-driven policymaking and sustainable development.

The National Statistics Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), has released a new study on model-based district-level estimates derived from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2022–23 for Uttar Pradesh. The report, now available on the MoSPI website, marks a step towards more localised, data-driven policymaking. The NSO conducts large-scale household surveys across diverse socio-economic themes to generate reliable statistical inputs for policymaking. Among these, the HCES plays a vital role by capturing data on household consumption patterns, living standards, and demographic characteristics at national and state levels. Aim of the Study The study was undertaken following the National Statistical Commission’s Steering Committee recommendation to pilot model-based estimation techniques for generating district-level insights. A dedicated committee chaired by Dr Mausumi Bose, Former Professor at the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Kolkata, was constituted to explore the feasibility of estimating Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) for each district in Uttar Pradesh using HCES data. The project received technical support from the NSO and the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Government of Uttar Pradesh. While HCES data provides robust estimates at national and state levels, it often lacks district-level precision due to limited survey samples. To address this gap, the study adopted a model-based approach, testing whether statistical modelling could generate accurate, cost-effective estimates for smaller administrative units. Methodology The research employed a statistical technique called Small Area Estimation (SAE), which enhances data accuracy for smaller regions by combining survey data with auxiliary administrative information. This approach “borrows strength” from related datasets, improving the stability of estimates where direct sampling is insufficient. The study utilised two types of statistical models — Fay–Herriot (FH) and Spatial Fay–Herriot (SFH) — and incorporated auxiliary data such as: Number of old-age pension beneficiaries Number of Ayushman Bharat (PM-JAY) patients Number of domestic LPG connections Number of Antyodaya food scheme beneficiaries Key Findings The top five rural districts with the highest average MPCE were: Bagpat Saharanpur Gautam Buddha Nagar Meerut Ghaziabad In urban areas, the leading districts were: Gautam Buddha Nagar Gonda Ghaziabad Bagpat Lucknow The study showed that model-based estimation can be a cost-effective and scalable solution for generating district-level statistics using state-level survey data. Conclusion The findings reaffirm the potential of statistical modelling as a reliable tool for filling data gaps and improving local-level governance. By providing district-specific insights, the method enables policymakers to design targeted welfare programmes, monitor living standards, and reduce regional inequalities. The success of this pilot in Uttar Pradesh sets a precedent for extending the model-based approach to other states and socio-economic indicators, such as employment, health, and poverty, advancing India’s commitment to data-driven policymaking and sustainable development.

Next Story
Resources

Haworth India Hosts Women’s Leadership Panel Series

Haworth India marked International Women’s Day by hosting a leadership roundtable series titled ‘Give to Gain’, bringing together senior women leaders from architecture and design firms, corporates and project management consultancies. The series has been conducted in Delhi and Mumbai, with upcoming sessions scheduled in Bengaluru and Hyderabad on 27 March 2026. Structured as moderated panel discussions followed by audience interaction, the initiative examined the business impact of women’s leadership and the role of inclusive workplaces in supporting professional growth. Manish Khan..

Next Story
Real Estate

Max Estates Secures RERA For Max One Project

Max Estates has secured RERA approval (UPRERA No.: UPRERAPRJ9759) for its Max One development around Max Towers in Sector 16B, Noida, bringing renewed progress to a project previously stalled following the insolvency of its earlier developer. Spread across around 10 acres with an estimated development potential of about 2.5 million sq ft, Max One is planned as an integrated mixed-use campus combining serviced residences, premium offices, retail spaces and a private club. The project is expected to generate total sales potential of about Rs 20 billion along with an estimated annuity rental inc..

Next Story
Real Estate

Hindware Introduces Starc Smart Wall Mount Toilet

Hindware has introduced the Starc Smart Wall-Mount Toilet under its Hindware Italian Collection, designed to combine automation, hygiene and contemporary bathroom aesthetics. The model features automatic flushing, sensor-based seat opening and closing, and remote-controlled functions. It also includes an oscillating water spray and warm air dryer for cleaning, along with a self-cleaning nozzle designed to maintain hygiene. Additional features include adjustable heated seating, customisable water temperature and pressure settings, a foot-touch flush system and an LCD control interface. The wa..

Advertisement

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get daily newsletters around different themes from Construction world.

STAY CONNECTED

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement