Brent crude expected to trade in $75-80 range amid oversupply

06 Nov 2024 CW Team

Brent crude oil prices are expected to remain in the range of $75-80 per barrel, driven by an oversupply forecast and weak demand from China, according to Emkay Wealth Management Ltd. Brent is currently trading at $74 per barrel, with the market activity mostly confined to the lower end of the expected range, the wealth management arm of Emkay Global Financial Services noted in a press statement.

Fundamental factors, including estimates from OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), point toward an oversupply scenario in 2024. "The estimates indicate supply in excess of demand growth," Emkay Wealth said, adding that the outlook is further impacted by China’s declining demand for diesel and gasoline, which has reportedly weakened local refining activity over the last three months.

Despite tensions in the Middle East, no major disruptions have occurred in Iranian oilfields, and attacks on supply routes have been sporadic, Emkay Wealth noted. “There is no premium on oil prices due to the geopolitical developments as of today,” it said, highlighting that any price spike may only occur if the conflict escalates with direct impacts on oil production sites.

The report also underscored that US sanctions on Iran's petroleum sector remain tightened, yet these measures have not led to significant price increases. Emkay Wealth’s outlook suggests stability in oil prices unless there is a substantial change in the geopolitical landscape.

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