+
Crisil Sees Brent At USD 90-95 Per Barrel Raising India's CAD Risk
OIL & GAS

Crisil Sees Brent At USD 90-95 Per Barrel Raising India's CAD Risk

Crisil Intelligence (Crisil) has forecast that Brent crude will average USD 90-95 per barrel in the current fiscal, around 32 per cent higher than in the previous fiscal. It has said that higher oil prices would lift India's current account deficit to two point two per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) from zero point six per cent in fiscal 2026. The agency noted that oil remains the largest source of the goods trade gap, accounting for 36 per cent in fiscal 2026.

Data released alongside the analysis showed that the merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 28.2 bn in May 2026 from USD 22.6 bn a year earlier as exports recorded a broad-based 18 per cent year-on-year rise to USD 45.2 bn in May, compared with USD 43.6 bn in April. Petroleum exports expanded by 54.9 per cent year-on-year against 34.6 per cent, while core exports grew by 12.3 per cent to USD 34.2 bn from 10.4 per cent to USD 31.6 bn.

On a sequential basis, oil exports fell to USD 8.4 bn in May from USD 9.6 bn in April as crude prices eased after an extraordinary surge related to conflict in West Asia. Brent crude averaged USD 107.1 per barrel in May, down 8.7 per cent from April, and the agency indicated that the on-year jump in petroleum exports partly reflected a statistical low base and a 66.2 per cent rise in Brent prices in May.

Crisil warned that elevated energy costs would exert additional pressure on the current account and that recovery in supplies could take several months even if geopolitical tensions subside. The agency also noted that goods exports will need to navigate lingering global trade disruptions, which together with higher import costs could widen external imbalances and pose risks to external financing requirements.

Crisil Intelligence (Crisil) has forecast that Brent crude will average USD 90-95 per barrel in the current fiscal, around 32 per cent higher than in the previous fiscal. It has said that higher oil prices would lift India's current account deficit to two point two per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) from zero point six per cent in fiscal 2026. The agency noted that oil remains the largest source of the goods trade gap, accounting for 36 per cent in fiscal 2026. Data released alongside the analysis showed that the merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 28.2 bn in May 2026 from USD 22.6 bn a year earlier as exports recorded a broad-based 18 per cent year-on-year rise to USD 45.2 bn in May, compared with USD 43.6 bn in April. Petroleum exports expanded by 54.9 per cent year-on-year against 34.6 per cent, while core exports grew by 12.3 per cent to USD 34.2 bn from 10.4 per cent to USD 31.6 bn. On a sequential basis, oil exports fell to USD 8.4 bn in May from USD 9.6 bn in April as crude prices eased after an extraordinary surge related to conflict in West Asia. Brent crude averaged USD 107.1 per barrel in May, down 8.7 per cent from April, and the agency indicated that the on-year jump in petroleum exports partly reflected a statistical low base and a 66.2 per cent rise in Brent prices in May. Crisil warned that elevated energy costs would exert additional pressure on the current account and that recovery in supplies could take several months even if geopolitical tensions subside. The agency also noted that goods exports will need to navigate lingering global trade disruptions, which together with higher import costs could widen external imbalances and pose risks to external financing requirements.

Related Stories

Gold Stories

Next Story
Products

Interio by Godrej launches modular workplace solutions

Interio by Godrej has launched Workscapes, a modular workplace solutions category designed to help organisations configure and adapt workspaces to changing requirements. The portfolio combines mobile and compatible furniture and support elements that can be rearranged across different work modes without changes to fixed layouts.Workscapes includes Collaboration Tables, Privacy Solutions, Mobile Markerboards and Space Dividers, Power Solutions, Storage and Support Elements, Meeting and Presentation Tools, and Seating Elements. The range is designed for focused work, collaboration, informal disc..

Next Story
Infrastructure Urban

CAFE-III Gives Auto Industry Investment Clarity

The government’s new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE-III) norms have provided the automobile industry with a clearer framework for technology investments, according to industry representatives. The framework seeks to balance environmental objectives with flexibility for manufacturers while encouraging the adoption of flex-fuel vehicles and biofuels. Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) President Shenu Agarwal said the five-year framework would give automakers greater predictability to plan investments and accelerate innovation. He said the regulation established annual targ..

Next Story
Infrastructure Energy

Mines Ministry to Auction Two Offshore Mineral Blocks in Andaman Sea

The Ministry of Mines will launch an auction of two offshore mineral blocks in the Andaman Sea on Thursday, seeking to unlock India’s offshore mineral potential and strengthen long-term mineral resource security. The blocks will be offered under a composite licence, which permits exploration and development activities in accordance with the applicable regulatory framework. The ministry said the auction was intended to encourage systematic exploration, attract investment and promote the use of advanced technologies for offshore mineral exploration and development. The initiative is also aimed..

Advertisement

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get daily newsletters around different themes from Construction world.

STAY CONNECTED

Advertisement

SPECIAL OFFER
QR Code