Morgan Stanley Lowers 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Due to China Concerns

26 Aug 2024 CW Team

Morgan Stanley has revised its 2024 oil demand growth outlook, reducing the forecast due to economic challenges in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer. The bank now predicts global oil demand to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from the previous estimate of 1.6 million bpd.

China's sluggish economic recovery, slower industrial output, and weaker-than-expected demand for oil-related products have raised concerns about the country's ability to drive global oil consumption. As China faces ongoing economic headwinds, including a struggling property sector and slower export growth, these factors have significantly influenced the global oil demand outlook.

Morgan Stanley also highlighted the impact of increased energy efficiency and the transition toward cleaner energy alternatives, further dampening the demand for traditional oil. The rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy initiatives are expected to contribute to a slower pace of oil consumption growth in the coming years.

Despite the lowered forecast, Morgan Stanley noted that global oil markets could remain tight in 2024, particularly if production cuts by OPEC+ continue. While demand growth is expected to moderate, supply-side constraints may still support higher oil prices over the next year.

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