OPEC sees no long-term peak in oil demand, Secretary General says

14 Jun 2024 CW Team

OPEC does not anticipate a peak in oil demand in its long-term forecast, projecting growth to 116 million barrels per day by 2045, with the potential for even higher figures, as stated by the secretary general.

In contrast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that it expects oil demand to peak by 2029, stabilising at around 106 million barrels per day (bpd) towards the end of the decade.

Hathaim Al Ghais, writing in Energy Aspects, described the IEA report as "dangerous commentary, especially for consumers," which he believes "will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale."

OPEC+, which includes the Saudi-led OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and allies like Russia, has implemented a series of significant output cuts since late 2022 to stabilise the market.

OPEC+ members are collectively reducing output by 5.86 million bpd, approximately 5.7% of global demand. This includes cuts of 3.66 million bpd that the group agreed on June 2 to extend by a year until the end of 2025, along with cuts of 2.2 million bpd that will be gradually phased out over a year starting in October.

The Paris-based IEA, which provides advice to industrialized countries, has moved forward its forecast for peak oil demand, having previously indicated in October that it would occur by 2030. The IEA now predicts that oil demand will begin to decline in 2030, while the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries increase their supply.

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