TAPI pipeline project to commence soon

Authorities from Turkmenistan are likely to arrive this weekend in Kabul to discuss commencing the work on the 1,800 kilometre TAPI pipeline, which Unocal vice-president Marty Miller's imagination helped birth—and, if it was not for 9/11, Unocal might just have succeeded.

TAPI is built to transport 33 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas each year from the Galkynysh fields, the world’s second-largest, across Afghanistan and Pakistan into Fazilka in southern Punjab.

For over three decades, the project has been viewed as a win for all its participants. Landlocked Turkmenistan would discover markets for its gas, cash-strapped Afghanistan and Pakistan would obtain from transit fees, and hydrocarbon-hungry India from reliable, cheap energy.

Even as it fought the Afghan state, the Taliban promised not to attack any TAPI-related development work, knowing it would additionally bring windfall gains.

Since 2016, New Delhi has supported TAPI; government-owned energy giant GAIL holds a 5% stake in the TAPI Pipeline Company, the special-purpose consortium behind the project.

Despite the hype, though, huge questions are hanging over the project—and not just around the obvious problems associated with pushing a pipeline through a war-torn nation. Funding the pipeline is the biggest of them.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has evaluated the cost of constructing the pipeline itself at some $10 billion. Experts consider the actual amount slightly higher, at $14-16 billion, not including upstream investments required for Turkmenistan to generate the promised 33bcm.

Expert Steve Mann has recommended that, in reality, it is very fair to view TAPI as a $40 billion plan.

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