Despite good demand cement prices to stay down until mid-year

11 Jun 2024 CW Team

Prabhudas Lilladher, anticipates an 8-9% growth in cement sector volumes from April to March 2024-25, followed by over 10% growth the following year. However, prices are expected to remain subdued until after the monsoon season.

Tushar Chaudhari, a Research Analyst at the brokerage firm, holds a positive outlook on large-cap cement companies such as UltraTech Cement and Ambuja Cements.

Chaudhari highlights the aggressive strategies and cost efficiencies of these companies, along with capacity expansions to meet rising demand. He expects them to secure a significant market share in the future, although smaller companies may struggle unless demand and pricing improve further.

While UltraTech shares have seen a year-to-date decline of over 2%, Ambuja has experienced a gain of more than 16%.

Demand for cement has been gradually improving, with a rebound in growth seen in February and March after a weak January due to weather conditions and pollution-related restrictions.

Despite attempts to raise prices in April and May, weak demand led to price reductions. Although some regions, particularly in the North and Central areas, saw slight price increases of Rs 5-10, an overall weakness persists.

Post-monsoon, as demand picks up significantly as companies are expected to resume price hikes.

The EBITDA per tonne are forecasted to improve by the second half of FY25 to over Rs 1,000 for most leading companies.

South-based companies like Ramco Cement and Sagar Cements are also to benefit from recent political developments, with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) pledging to reinstate Amaravati as the capital city.

Brokerage firm Jefferies predicts a potential price hike for June following the conclusion of elections. The expected impact of weak prices and volume on EBITDA per tonne in the first quarter is said to be partially offset by lower variable costs.

(Source: CNBCTV18)

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